May 1, 2009
Dinar and Discussion May & June 2009
By DinarAdmin
Dinar and Discussion for May & June 2009
mattuk wrote:
UK plc 'risks missing out' on riches from Iraq
Patrick Hosking, Financial EditorWar-torn Iraq represents the most exciting investment opportunity since the Asian tiger economies in the 1970s, according to an adviser to the Iraqi Government, who warned that British companies and investors were in danger of missing out.
Sir Claude Hankes said that Iraq would turn out to be “the economic dynamo for the entire Gulf region” because of its large and growing population, educated middle class and industrious trading culture.
His comments came ahead of a London conference on Thursday supported by the Government and attended by Nouri al-Maliki, the Iraqi Prime Minister, and Lord Mandelson, the Business Secretary.
“Not since the Far East in the 1970s have I seen a market that has the economic potential that Iraq has today,” said Sir Claude, who helped to set up the first Western investment fund for Singapore and Hong Kong when he was a director of Robert Fleming, the investment bank, three decades ago.
“I remember Singapore in the 1970s, when people had nothing, not even water,” said Sir Claude, who believes that Iraq could follow a similarly spectacular economic growth path after years of underinvestment.Iraq, he said, had a reputation for industriousness and trading that made it stand out in the region, which could not be said of Dubai, Abu Dhabi or Egypt. British companies, however, seemed less alert to the potential opportunities than competitors from other countries, he said. “People will soon lose out in a major way unless they get their act together. We've been slow, that's my perception.”
Sir Claude also hit out at the Government for blocking visa applications from educated Iraqis seeking bona fide training opportunities in the UK. “This has to be addressed,” he said.
Sir Claude is advising the state-owned Trade Bank of Iraq, which he said was attempting to raise a $250 million (£170 million) fund to invest in local Iraqi businesses. TBI, which was set up soon after American tanks rolled into Iraq in 2003, reported a 41 per cent increase in net profits to $359 million on Wednesday with total assets up 64 per cent to $10 billion.
The bank began by issuing letters of credit to facilitate Iraqi trade but is pushing deeper into other areas, such as infrastructure finance, backing projects such as the new Erbil electricity plant, which keeps the lights on in Kurdistani Iraq 24 hours a day. Previously, the Kurds made do with only four hours.
Iraq boasts the world's third-largest oil reserves and is desperate for investment in virtually every sector — from transport and power infrastructure to schools, hospitals, housebuilding and tourism. “There has been no major investment in Iraq since 1990,” Hussein al-Uzri, chairman of TBI, said.
Security, however, remains a major concern for foreign investors. Although suicide bombings are down from the heights of two years ago, parts of the country remain highly dangerous. At least 41 people were killed and more than 70 wounded on Wednesday when car bombs exploded in a busy market of Baghdad's Sadr City slum. Last week 150 people died in two days of bombings amid fears that widespread sectarian violence could return.
“You think it's all chaos,” Sir Claude said. “But the fact is that if you go to Baghdad, which I have done many times, life goes on quite normally.”
Source: Times online uk-- May 1, 2009 7:08 AM ∞
mattuk wrote:
Heavyweights moving into Baghdad
Patrick Hosking: AnalysisGolden hopes for Iraq as a business opportunity are nothing new. A week after the American-led invasion in 2003, Paul Wolfowitz, the US Deputy Secretary of Defence at the time, told Congress that the country would be earning $50 billion to $100 billion a year in oil revenues within three years and would therefore be able to finance its own reconstruction. He was hopelessly optimistic. Six years on, oil earnings are a tiny fraction of that sum and reconstruction has barely begun.
Violence, bureaucracy, difficult regional politics, a lack of basic infrastructure and, more latterly, corruption have all stifled any sort of business renaissance.
But some British groups are managing to clinch deals. In February Mesopotamia Petroleum Co signed a £277 million joint venture deal with the Iraqi Oil Ministry. Maritime & Underwater Security Consultants has won a contract to map the sea bed off the Al-Faw peninsula. B-Plan Information, a British computer software company, is working for Rafidain, the biggest Iraqi bank.
Heavweight blue chips are interested, too. Rolls-Royce, HSBC, BP, Shell and Wood Group were among the 23 UK companies that accompanied Lord Mandelson to Baghdad this month.
Related Links
Thirty foreign companies are said to have bid for licences for important oilfields and the contracts are scheduled to be awarded in June.
Source: Times online uk-- May 1, 2009 7:11 AM ∞
steve wrote:
Government of Iraq-Ministry of Industry and Minerals, http://www.industry.gov.iq/?id=contactus_1
This site has a lot of information on the Mixed Sector Companies
This gives you the companies products, what year the company started and what the %percentage is of the public is, so I think these comps are a must have, if the State keeps a %percentage in the companies, they are going to be pushing some contracts to them no doubt about it
This is a list of Iraq banks with %percentage in other countries
Al-Ahli (national bank of Iraq) owned by Export & Finance Bank of Jordan
Bank of Baghdad is 49% owend by United Gulf Bank of Bahrain
Credit Bank of Iraq is 75% owend by National Bank of Kuwait (NBK)
Commercial Bank is owend by Al-Ahli Bank of Bahrain (through an Iraqi Holding CO)
Dae Es Salaam is owned 70% by HSBC
Economy Bank is 49% owned by A'ayan company of Kuwait
Mansour Bank is owned by National Bank of Qatar-- May 1, 2009 11:43 PM ∞
Tsalagi wrote:
Warka Bank has been down for a few days updating their system.....hope they're adding the ISX to their system!
=================================================================================================================================
Dear CustomersWe here would like to offer you our apologies because our e-banking services will be stopped temporarily till Sunday morning in order to update our core banking system.
Sorry for the inconvenience caused.
Regards
-- May 2, 2009 2:00 AM ∞
Tsalagi wrote:
The Turks are good business people. They have a winning combination of nice looking receptionists,good managers, good Turkish coffee, good prices and very good logistics for quick delivery of their goods.
===============================================================================================================
Turkey's trade in Iraq amounted to 6 billion USD in 2008http://www.kurdishglobe.net/displayArticle.jsp?id=18F90A249EF76D2674A343447D64BF37
-- May 2, 2009 2:42 PM ∞
RON wrote:
Hello dinar train.I just figured out how to post here, I was here for the beginning and things changed so being new to computers did not understand howw they worked.Glad to see some of the old dinar train gang still here.Gang still waiting for that pig roast on a beach in Hawaii,good luck to all and keep the train moving.
-- May 4, 2009 10:57 AM ∞
BritishKnite wrote:
Hi Steve,
It's good see you posting again. I keep thinking about venturing into the ISX but am a bit weary. From your postings it seems like everything listed makes money. Surely this can't be true? Besides the stock listings is there enough data to do research on the companies to make an informed decision?
BritishKnite.
-- May 4, 2009 3:28 PM ∞
David wrote:
Okay, everyone - who is still in? Anyone give up their investment? If so, why? If not, why not?
David
-- May 4, 2009 11:01 PM ∞
BritishKnite wrote:
David. I'm still in because I can't afford not to. I got in years ago holding some physical notes and a bank account. I haven't ventured into stocks .. yet. If it doesn't pan out, then the committment won't break me, but if it does .. well! Imagine how you would feel if you'd been hearing about this for years but didn't get in, and then it hits? The sleepless nights, the should've, could've. You'd should all over yourself!
How about you? Are you in or out?
BritishKnite.
-- May 5, 2009 2:32 AM ∞
Tsalagi wrote:
I'm still hangin' on to my dinars in the form of cash, bank account,ISX and a trust. These days, while I wait for the RV, I'm hangin' out in the dining car of our little dinar train. At least, in that car, I can get some good food and a shot of Jim Beam now and then....aint life grand!!
-- May 5, 2009 3:57 PM ∞
Twolincs wrote:
Can someone please educate me.. I have a friend in Iraq( I'm in US ) and we have some Dinar we aquired and someone( In Iraq allegidly ) recently said the Dinar was bieng replaced with a new printed currency Quote: " Iraqi Gov't. issued NEW dinar , old stuff isn't worth anything unless it's in a bank. This goes back to Feb-Mar 09 "
I have not seen anything anywhere to verify this and I am new to this site as of today and am very glad I found it ! Would appreciate any info and would anyone still consider buying more today ? I looked at the pictures of the currency at the CBI web site today and it looks the same as what I have. Regards,twolincs....hopefull investor.-- May 7, 2009 12:56 AM ∞
Tsalagi wrote:
twolincs....
Welcome to the forum! Your dinar matches the CBI notes so it's current and legal anywhere in the world. When we get a possible RV (revaluation) of the dinar, your dinars in an Iraqi bank will be converted automatically. Any dinar being held in the US can be, we assume, converted at a US bank such as Chase.
Hope this helps.....
-- May 7, 2009 1:34 PM ∞
Twolincs wrote:
Tsalagi, thank you very much for putting my mind at ease. I was sure hopeing I didn't miss something....Whew!!!! Again I am very glad I found this site, I havent been paying much attention to the news over there but with current events happening faster that the speed of sound,thought I'd better start investigating and have found a wealth of information here. Thanks Again !! Regards, Twolincs
-- May 7, 2009 7:15 PM ∞
Tsalagi wrote:
Heritage confident of Iraqi exportsPublished: May 7, 2009 at 1:52
ERBIL, Iraq, May 7 (UPI) -- Exports from an oil field in the Kurdish region of Iraq may proceed despite contract disputes between the regional government and Baghdad, executives say.
Heritage Oil said it has discovered oil at the Miran field in Sulaimaniya province, with expected yields passing 4 billion barrels of oil.
Ashti Hawrami, the Kurdistan Regional Government oil minister, called the find "excellent news, and we look forward to the Miran field exporting oil later this year," the Financial Times reports.
Heritage said it expects Miran to produce additional oil in associated structures.
Oil deals with the KRG are a point of contention with the Iraqi central government in Baghdad, which views unilateral Kurdish oil deals as a violation of the Iraqi Constitution.
Those disputes have delayed several projects in the Kurdish regions, though Paul Atherton, chief financial officer at Heritage, said he thinks progress in talks between both governments will bring exports online soon.
"We are confident we will be able to export oil," he said.
-- May 8, 2009 12:44 AM ∞
mattuk wrote:
Iraq Kurds say to start Tawke crude exports June 1
Fri May 8, 2009 2:09pm BST
BAGHDAD, May 8 (Reuters) - Oil exports from the Tawke field in Iraq's Kurdish north will begin on June 1, the largely autonomous region said on Friday, suggesting the start of official foreign sales from the promising Kurdish fields.Exports will begin at an initial rate of 60,000 barrels per day (bpd), the Kurdistan Regional Government said.
Its natural resources minister, Ashti Hawrami, said in a statement that 40,000 bpd will be sent in June by truck from a second field, Taq Taq, ultimately going through an Iraq-Turkey export pipeline.
But a spokesman of the Iraqi Oil Ministry in Baghdad denied there had been any deal to allow Kurdish oil exports via a national pipeline. The ministry has long denied permission for this. "So far no deal has been concluded between the two parties," spokesman Asim Jihad told Reuters.
Shares in DNO International (DNO.OL), the Oslo listed company that is developing the Tawke field, surged on news of the export plans and they were up more than 15 percent by 1256 GMT.
DNO Chief Financial Officer Haakon Sandborg pointed to the Kurdish statement as the reason behind the jump. [nL8999870]
The tangle over contracts and the oil pipeline are part of a larger dispute between the Shi'ite Arab-led government of Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki and Kurds, one that has blocked passage of national oil and gas legislation.
IRAQ STATE MARKETING BODY
Hawrami said, however, that Iraq's state marketing body would handle the oil sales.
"The exported crude oil from both fields will be marketed by [the Iraqi State Oil Marketing Organisation] and the revenue will be deposited to the federal Iraq account for the benefit of all Iraqi people," Hawrami said.
Baghdad's position on the pipeline has meant that oil from Kurdistan, which has had a large degree of autonomy under international protection since the end of the Gulf War in 1991, has gone only to supply a small Kurdish market, with small amounts being smuggled abroad.
Kurdistan has also struck deals with firms including Addax Petroleum (AXC.TO) and Turkey's General Enerji.
Oil contracts signed by the Kurdish government have been a thorn in relations between Arbil, the Kurdish capital, and the central government in Baghdad. The Oil Ministry deems those contracts to be illegal.
Hawrami says that members of the Kurdish minority only want their fair share of Iraq's oil wealth.
Growing Kurd-Arab tensions have raised doubts about whether the divide over energy resources could feed renewed conflict even as overall violence in Iraq subsides after more than six years of war.
Arabs reject Kurdish ambitions to absorb the oil-rich region of Kirkuk, home to Kurds, Arabs and Turkmen, into Kurdistan.
Iraq has the world's third largest oil reserves, but it desperately needs investment to boost production and repair infrastructure damage caused by decades of sanctions, war and neglect.
Iraqi Oil Minister Hussain al-Shahristani is now seeking long-term development contracts with the world's largest oil firms. Shahristani hopes those contracts will help Iraq at least double daily output from around 2.4 million bpd now.
British oil explorer Heritage Oil (HOIL.L) recently announced it had found up to 4.2 billion barrels of oil in Kurdistan, adding to pressure to unblock the Kurdish-Arab impasse.
Iraq, which relies on oil imports for more than 95 percent of its state revenues, is facing a budget crisis after the collapse of oil prices from their all-time high last summer.
Heritage said this week it hopes to be producing 10,000 to 15,000 barrels of oil per day by the end of the year, using trucks to move the crude to a pipeline in Kirkuk for export.
-- May 8, 2009 9:24 AM ∞
Tsalagi wrote:
Just checked the Warka Bank site and found this news item that was posted today...good news!! It sure perked up my day. Com'on RV!!
==========================================================================================================================================
Dear Warka Investor,
It gives me great pleasure to inform you with our growing success we have increased our share capital to IQD 75 billion and will be issuing 47.058% free shares to our highly distinguished investors whom have all contributed to our success further developing our bank enhancing our operations.It is a true delight to have such esteemed investors being part of the largest private financial enterprise in the country.
Best regards,
-- May 8, 2009 12:27 PM ∞
steve wrote:
Britishkite,Yea I bought into the ISX about 18 months ago when every stock was well low, some others that got into it two or three years ago got burned as the share prices went down a lot, most of these guys are still in the red with their shares, and some are just about where they were when they started
If you go onto the ISX home page then bulletins & reports, go for old ones back a few years to see what was what then, and to maybe get an Idea of what may be the shares to go for, but as most of them are still very cheap I dont think you can go far wrong with buying up any companies shares that are under three dinars a go, your only down side is the new 200,000 share min buy in on any comp, I did Email MR I. at Warka to ask if they was any way they could take smaller orders then buy when there was enough, but he said they were busy as is, and he thinks the ISX will up the min buy in soon, so best get your best thinking trousers on and get busy
As we have the last tradeing day to make a pic list from, its sods law that when you get an Email from Warka telling you when your list will be done, most of the comps you want are not playing that day, so thats when on my list I was adding on 6 to 10 other comps just so I was picking up some and that is how I ended up with 19 Banks, and 23 comps in, Services sector, Hotel sector, Industry sector, Investment sector and Agriculture, or, Transport, Real Estate,Hotel, Food, Soft drinks, Paint, Chemical Products, Veterinary vaccines, Pharmaceuticals, Metal, Carton manufactures, Constrution materials, Electronic industries, Rog I forgot I had these and only 800,000 shares so you can see how easy it was to lose them
So yea everything I have has gone up, some by not a lot but then its all up, as is the 47.5% free shares in Warka Bank, so thats 941,000 free shares at 2.4 = 2,258,400 IQD so its not been a bad day has it
So I think you and anyone who has not got into the Iraqi bank and ISX are going to lose out big time
There are people on this site that are sat on a huge pile of the 25,000 dinar notes, that is doing naff all when it could be earning good interest in a Iraqi bank
I have cash dinars nice, dinars in the Iraqi bank, and dinars in the ISX, I think that is about all you can do with them, Im keeping a wedge in the dinar account as Im sure there is going to be some very good comps to have that are not yet on the ISX
Fill yer boots guys, Steve.
-- May 8, 2009 7:16 PM ∞
Valerio wrote:
Hey gang, most of the originals are gone now. The forum has changed in tone in a major way. I must say it's not nearly as entertaining as it once was. I personally don't give a hoot about the specifics of daily buisness activities in Iraq. Yeah sure I know it might mean a little sompin' sompin', but really now, come on, who has time for that crap. I've been here 4 years now I think, and thats long enough to realize that all this meant nothing, except the people I got to know. Lance, Sara, Corol, Roger, Timbitts, Panhandler, and many more. The fights, the stories, the rumors, the RV prdictions, the religious disputes and discussions, the science lessons, those were the things worth reading. You guys who are left finally got what you wanted, and it sucks in my opinion, but not just on your own accord. Those things faded with our hope that the dinar was our ticket to overnight wealth. The reality is the dinar wasn't that at all. It turned into the unlikely chance most economist said it was. They were right! Sure we know it's still possible that the dinar will gain value. It has gained some, but for most, not as much as the dealer fees we paid when we bought our dinars. Without the colorfull commentaries, the personalities, and the mix of discussion that came from that, this site is dead. People said over and over "this is a dinar discussion", "I come here for dinar info not commentary". Like I said before, what does it do for you? The only info we really need to know is when it's time to cash in for USD's. I think of all the work Rob N. has put into the research for this site, no offense but it was a waste of time Rob. You would have been better off taking the kids fishing with that time. Now Mattuk has taken over much of that recently. Get real Mattuk and Tsalagi, who gives a crap about that stuff? It's like reading the Wallstreet Jurnal. I think it should be forbidden to paste onto this blog, that would take real good care of this bullshit. If it's news worth writing, then by all mean share it, but if I wanted to read that crap I would read the ste you cut it from. Get a life people.
-- May 9, 2009 1:18 AM ∞
Laura Parker wrote:
Valerio,
I think I know what you mean. You miss the community of people who have written on this blog for some time. It takes a lot of committment, time and energy to research and write to this blog all the time. I can assure you that I still check this blog on a regular basis...however, as of late, I have not found anything that would be interest to this site on the topic.
Valerio, don't lose heart. The people you are talking about are still around. I am sure of it. Sometimes, the topic of the RV moves like a snail or maybe not at all. I suspect, when something happens, the old timers will pop in again and let everyone know. Pray for Roger and others that are now in Iraq. I think everyone who has written are still planning a party in the Keys.
Keep the faith.
Laura Parker
-- May 9, 2009 2:08 AM ∞
Laura Parker wrote:
Mattuk, Tsalagi and others,
Don't take Valerio's comments to heart. He's just frustrated that some of the old names he's use to seeing haven't been writing as of late. I suspect, that maybe many of them are getting busy with their families and possibly doing what Valerio suggested to Rob N. to go fishing and spending more time with their families. It takes a lot of energy to keep writing to this blog. I'm sure that many of them will return in time.
In the meantime, others will need to fill in on the dinar train. Tsalagi, you like Roger have a unique outlook on Iraq as you too are in Iraq. Keep sharing your insights into what is happening in Iraq. Mattuk, your contributions are also appreciated. The news from Iraq is very slow and at times can seem unentertaining/boring. I think this is what Valerio is trying to say. And, Valerio, are you giving up on the dinar? Or, is it just frustration are feeling like you have lost all the friends you have had on this site?. I suspect, it is the later.
Again, I encourage you to hang in there as the old timers on this site (I believe) have not gone far.
Laura Parker
-- May 9, 2009 2:29 AM ∞
Valerio wrote:
Laura,
I'm not fustrated that most of the old timers are gone. I'm more fustrated that the writers are gone, that the opinions are gone, the debates are gone, the speculation, interpetation and predictions, all those things are pretty much gone. Now what we have is something like the US congressional channel, it can be interesting for a moment when there is a meaningful topic, but the rest is just filler, and about as exciting as paying the bills.
I appreciate, as you do, the insight of Tsalagi by his presence in Iraq. Yes that is good info, and a true indicator of how things are going, and interesting too. Info on how to get an AWARKA acct, and the ISX, yeah thats good stuff, anyone can appreciate meaningful info. When the posters put their fingers to the keys it's all good. It's like fresh air when Roger checks in.
I haven't given up hope that the dinar will someday make a significant gain. That would still be nice. I'm not going to get out, no no no. That would be like burning my lotto ticket before the drawing.-- May 9, 2009 3:56 AM ∞
Tsalagi wrote:
Valerio…..
I, like you, would appreciate some diversity on this forum. I found Truck & Barter several years ago and liked the Iraq dinar forum because it gave me my daily fix on the dinar and at the same time had a few other conversations going. It was like being at a family reunion and going from one group to another getting your two bits into the conversation.
However, I was raised in the Bible belt land of hard shelled Baptists and learned at an early age you didn’t discuss religion or politics at the family reunion. It was a known fact that you kept these conversations in their own circle of conversation because they tended to get very heated, especially if your intent was to “save” someone. I once saw my father punch his brother in the mouth because he told my father he was going to hell because we went to a different church. I must have learned that lesson well because years later a guy I didn’t know showed up at my house one evening and spoke loudly in my face, “you’ve sinned and come short of the glory of God…..you’re going to burn in hell”. I popped him in the mouth, told him I had talked to God in the morning and hell wasn’t mentioned, then led him to the end of my driveway. The guy simply didn’t realize that the relationship between an individual and God is very personal and everybody should respect that right. I know for a fact he didn’t add me to his list of “saved sinners”. Over the years I’ve learned to appreciate people who can discuss politics and religion without being dogmatic and offending the beliefs of other people in their circle of discussion.
I’ve worked most of my life as a Project Manager and realized long ago that “bitching” about something you would like to change won’t get the job done….you simply have to “just do it”!
So, the podium is open to you and others, to post any thoughts on any subject. I believe we can improve the content of the forum if everybody keeps an open mind and positive attitude.
-- May 9, 2009 2:39 PM ∞
Carole wrote:
Hello
For some reason I thought after many months to pop in and see if anybody had some significant news about the Dinar, and read the message about the old gang! :) Don't know where every one else is but I have been somewhere between an homicidal and suicidal state ! This Obama, anti-American, who has committed multiple acts of treason, fraud and who has thumbed his nose at the Constitution time and time again has changed the exterior face of the US. BUT THERE ARE MANY OF US GOOD OLE AMERICANS THAT ARE BEHIND THE SCENES, UNDERGROUND AND BUILDING OUR DEFENSE AGAINST THE TYRANNY PF THIS ADMINISTRATION.
IT TAKES ALOT OF TIME, COMMITMENT AND,YES, MONEY. But I can't think of a better place to spend it. Soooo, my T&B time almost doesn't exist anymore. But it is ice to see some of the old ones still well and here.I hear briefly from Sara in e-mails. I think she is okay. I can assure you she spends alot of her time on her knees praying or this country.
If you want to stay on solid ground....follow Glen Beck. There are many others but he is the most accessible. If you wat to support legitimate efforts to save this nation , follow Jay Sekulow ACLJ.
I am done with the Republican Party. At best they are masquerading as such behind the masks of Libertarians. There are 3 good reasons tye election was essentially handed to Obama. #1 GOP gave up the strong right base by giving us Mc Cain, as well as those in office who have sold out to true conservatism, for something we now call a moderate. #2. Those evangelicals who millions follow and belong to some organization called The Arlington Group turned on Huckabee.....who could have and would have brought out the millions who were just waiting for a "HARD CORE" CONSERVATIVE to be supported. That is why Sara got such an overwhelming response as did Joe the plummer!
I realize that we all have the Dinar in common, BUT more than that ow we must do all we can to save this country. We must FIGHT BACK, AND TALK LOUD AND STRONG AS NEVER BEFORE IN OUR LIFETIME OR HISTORY. To shy away from the fight we are in is to concede to a life from which most won't survive.
The fools that said "don't ever discuss religion or politics" is digging ditches in the old Soviet Union or selling pencils in Cuba!
Love ya.
Carole
-- May 10, 2009 2:45 AM ∞
steve wrote:
Hi Guys,
Kuwait and Saudi Arabie are poised to cancel 20 billion dollars owend by Iraq and to end the file of compensation
Well that will be one more thing out of the way
Open society institute (OSI) chairman George Soros launched Iraq Revenue Watch (IRW) in May 2003
I knew that your friend and mine George Soros was in there somewhere
Stay lucky guys, Steve.
-- May 10, 2009 2:52 AM ∞
Tsalagi wrote:
Carole.....
Most people from my neck of the woods, Texas and Oklahoma, share your thoughts about Obama and his Chicago style of Government. He even had the audicity to make fun of the recent tea parties across the nation. We certainly need another political party that will downsize the Government and spend more time with "We The People". As a last resort, to protect ourselves against tyranny and despotic leaders, our founding fathers gave us the right to keep and bear arms. Facts are clear that gun and ammunition sales are at a record level in our nation. I believe we can get our country back via the ballot box but still have deep concerns that Obama will not realize how concerned the citizens are and will continue to make the same mistakes.
If we all stay in "kick ass" mode we will get leaders that do as we say. Remember...they work for us! Join the next tea party!
-- May 10, 2009 11:46 AM ∞
Tsalagi wrote:
Recently, Warka Bank, had taken their system down for up-grades. I logged on today, to make some minor changes to my accounts, and found they no longer offer the "E-Remittance" feature. This feature allowed the customer to make money transfers from Warka to an external bank of their choice. The information I had in their system regarding my external Bank choices was still in their system with no changes. I'm assuming they're still working on their system to bring it up to international standards and regulations. The other part of my brain tells me they're getting ready for an RV of the Dinar and numerous transfers of money. Then again, that's the part of my brain I dream in!
-- May 11, 2009 11:38 AM ∞
cloaked wrote:
Tsalagi. Warka informed me that they are updating the E-Remittance feature soon as they are just doing more updates. I believe to add more security features.
-- May 12, 2009 8:05 AM ∞
Tsalagi wrote:
cloaked....
Thanks for the info. regarding Warka. They continue to improve their on-line services and truly are one of the best private banks in the area.
-- May 12, 2009 10:25 AM ∞
Rob N. wrote:
Hello All,
I generally check this site from time to time though I am not posting much anymore. Although Dinar has not progressed as we would have liked; I still believe the Dinar still has the potential to produce a good profit.
Long ago in one of my discussions with Carol we talked of the flavor of this site. In those days a variety of topics were posted and those I wanted to read and participated in I did so those I did not I skipped.
This site has become static as has the Dinar itself. Iraq itself has become mired in sectarian and ethnic strife marked by an infantile governnment incapable of providing basic services for its people. A government that has miserably failed at national reconcilation. A government with no clear direction regarding an attainable and sustainable economic or monetary policy for its people.
In some sense I think we as investors or speculators have been asking the wrong questions. These wrong questions are "when will the currency rv" or when will the currency lop"?
I am guilty of asking these questions myself.The journey of a nation state is a long one and although I am critical of Al-Malaki and the GoI the potential is there for a great nation to rise from the ashes of war. This is why I still believe that the dinar will deliever a proft. What form this profit takes is anyone's guess.
Laura, I would like to say it is good to see you post. Please convey my well wishes to Sara and tell her I would like to see her post.
Carol, if you are lurking about please pop in and say hello. Although we got off on the wrong foot in the past I miss your wit and your ability to speak your mind.
To those of you that continue to post thanks for keeping it going; I plan to check in more often than in the past.
Thanks,
Rob N.
-- May 12, 2009 10:55 AM ∞
Franko wrote:
Rob,
Always good to read your posts and update this site with your view of the matter. There could not be a better time for this currency to adjust for hardship has hit me all too well. God bless us all and this nation as well. Thank you for your contribution.
Franko
-- May 12, 2009 12:03 PM ∞
tim bitts wrote:
Hi, Just checking in...
Hope everyone is well.
A few comments:
When the American Army leaves Iraq, it's Showtime....then the Iraqis put up, or shut up.....no more excuses, no one to blame. Then, they can fight to the death, or get rich. It really is their choice. At that point, Iraq should settle pretty quick. Iraq will then either revert to a brutal dictatorship, within a year, or work out their disagreements and live in peace. It's their choice. In every Arab country, the government eventually brings order. Every time. Corrupt, incompetant government, but government nontheless,.....enough order to pump oil. Iraq will be no exception. The only question is, will order be imposed brutally, or through cooperation? That choice is the Iraqis to make, not America. If they chose to kill each other, we must let them.
After the killing stops, and when there is order, and the American Army is out, there will be no excuse not to RV. Right now, any hydro carbon law is suspect, because no one would trust it, because it would seem like it was written under a gun, of the American occupation. Once the American Army leaves, the hydrocarbon law will be passed. The Iraqi government will be free to impose order on the country, without being accused of being American stooges and puppets. Then, the really heavy hand comes out. Then, the independent Kurdistan Army will have to decide if it wants to fight the Shiite Army, in a bloody civil war. Then, the Iraqis will decide if it is to be peace, or civil war. Either way, America wins. Order will be imposed. The oil will flow. The RV will follow, as day follows night. Whoever wins, order will be restored. Then, the gold rush is on. The oil business will then develop very, very fast, and the RV will happen very quickly.
So, don't give up. Dinar holders will all be rich.
Like a pilot light on a gas stove, this site may not burn bright, but the light will never go out. There are people on this site who will NEVER give up. You know who you are. People will go on with their lives, but check back on this site, from time to time,.....and some day, a great flame will burst, on RV day.
Thank you to the faithful people who keep the pilot light going.
God bless you.
A big hello to all the old regulars, like Rob N, Sara, Carole, Roger, Laura, and anyone who's name I can't think of right now.
I remember you all.
I am doing other things, obviously, but will check in to this site from time to time, for as long as it takes.
I suspect others will do the same.
Take care,
God bless,
Tim Bitts
-- May 13, 2009 12:01 AM ∞
Valerio wrote:
There is much more to be concerned with right now than the status of the dinar investment. Right now the USA is going down the tubes. Our people have elected "the one" who will lead us down. Please start paying as much attention to whats going on right under our noses as you do about whats going on in Iraq. We could be a 3rd world country in no time at all. Does anyone think we can really borrow 50% of what we're spending, kill millions in the wombs of our women, except pervertion in our society, allow righteousness to be scoffed at like a detestible thing, and get away with it without judgement? The great consumer of all the worlds goods will no longer have the money to buy, and the kings of the earth will certainly mourn. America must be destroyed in order for the new world order to come, and my friends they are getting it done, and we let them do it. Be watching.
-- May 13, 2009 6:12 AM ∞
Tsalagi wrote:
In my career, I’ve been lucky enough to live and work in the US, SE Asia, Europe and the Middle East. I’ve seen the good, bad and ugly styles of government from different styles of democracy to despotic kings.
Our founding fathers gave us a style of government that could protect itself from bad government by allowing the many rights we have under the constitution and we are still a work in progress. Obama has ushered in a strong central government style of politics that sends up alarm bells around the country. Our constitution calls for a small central government and strong powers retained by “we the people” within the various states.
Normally a government that’s moving in the wrong direction is corrected via the ballot box. But it seems, when we replace one party with another, things continue to go bad. I think we have such a large group of liars, crooks and queers in our elected officials we need to take another course of action.If the ballot box doesn’t remove these characters then we need to use that same ballot box to starve them away from the public trough. We need to send our tax dollars to the States and only allow the central government enough money, with strong watchdogs, to run the areas of common interest such as defense, etc.
Politicians, at the state level are just as crooked as those in Washington but at least we would be close enough to ride them out of town on a rail if necessary.
-- May 13, 2009 3:29 PM ∞
runescape gold wrote:
Hi, nice post. I have been wondering about this topic,so thanks for sharing. I will certainly be subscribing to your blog.
-- May 14, 2009 3:00 AM ∞
Laura Parker wrote:
Valerio,
I do not think that other members of this blog are unconcerned about what is happening in the United States of America. We all can see it. It will take time for other americans to see it too and band together to find a solution to the problem. I think that entry to the next to last entry had it right. States rights to repeal the 16 amendment to the constituion would do it. It would send all tax money to the state government and then the states can decide what amount to send to the central government for national defense.
All,
I continue to appreciate all of you who post and continue the dinar train.
Rob N.,
I have not heard from Sara lately. Maybe, she will read the blog and post. I certainly hope so.
TimBitts and Carole,
It's nice to hear from you two. Don't be strangers. Let us know what you are up to from time to time.
Panhandler,
I know from last report, you moved back with your sons in Oregon after medical treatment in Florida. Drop us a note and let us know how you are.
Roger,
Keep us informed about your whereabouts in Iraq and how you are doing.
Laura Parker
-- May 16, 2009 1:39 AM ∞
Rob N. wrote:
All,
Parliament will not ratify Iraqi-Turkish Agreement, decrees to include article securing Iraq's water share
The parliament voted on a resolution mandating non-signing of the Iraqi-Turkish Agreement as it now stands and the inclusion in it of an article which secures Iraq's share of the waters of both the Tigris and the Euphrates rivers.
(www.noozz.com)Thanks,
Rob N.-- May 17, 2009 7:30 PM ∞
Rob N. wrote:
All,
Musawi calls for dismissing Oil Minister 16/05/2009 12:36:00
Baghdad (NINA) –Member of the Finance Committee in Parliament MP Shatha al-Musawi called to dismiss Oil Minister Hussein al-Shahristani due to his "major role in deteriorated oil production and deteriorated Iraqi economy."
Thanks,Rob N.
-- May 17, 2009 7:32 PM ∞
Rob N. wrote:
All,
Musawi calls for dismissing Oil Minister 16/05/2009 12:36:00
Baghdad (NINA) –Member of the Finance Committee in Parliament MP Shatha al-Musawi called to dismiss Oil Minister Hussein al-Shahristani due to his "major role in deteriorated oil production and deteriorated Iraqi economy."
(www.ninanews.com)Thanks,
Rob N.
-- May 17, 2009 7:34 PM ∞
Tsalagi wrote:
My work in the Middle East allowed me to see and observe Iraq before and during both gulf wars. I’ve always known the country was in good shape due to the natural resources they had. The people are also hard working and industrious. They’ve suffered due to some bad leadership in their government but I have no doubt they will overcome that obstacle.So, when the new Iraqi Dinar started showing up in the markets, I started buying and accumulating them at a steady pace. I knew then, and I know now, the Dinar will eventually appreciate to a good value. My position is a starting value of at least 28 US Cents in order to be worth a little more than the Saudi Riyal. Right now a Saudi Riyal is worth .27USD and the Iraqis will do a small one-upmanship on their Sunni neighbors to the South. I believe the initial RV will be pegged to a small basket of currencies and the Central Bank of Iraq will attempt to keep it to a slow, steady growth on the FOREX market.
The first merchant I bought Dinar from was a very likeable and honest man. Every day he traveled from Baghdad to the boonies, where the Americans stayed, and sold dinar, fake Rolex watches, etc. so he could take care of his family. He never kept records or gave us a receipt for the dinars we purchased because he feared the terrorists would kill him if they found out he was doing business with Americans. Ironically they killed him one day just to get his money and goods he had with him. We sent a collection of money to his family, via his brother. It was a sad day for everyone.
Which reminds me…..Why is Nancy Pelosi still trying to find a home on US soil for the terrorists? This woman is dangerous to our country! I hope the rumor is true that Obama is going to throw her under the bus.
-- May 18, 2009 12:00 AM ∞
Tsalagi wrote:
SNAP ANALYSIS-Iraqi Kurdistan to export gas to Europe, TurkeyReuters, Sunday May 17 2009 By Simon WebbDUBAI, May 17 (Reuters) - A consortium of companies from the United Arab Emirates and Europe plan to export enough gas from the Kurdish region of northern Iraq to supply the first phase of the Nabucco pipeline to Europe.
The exports would help Europe in its quest to diversify energy supplies away from Russia. Following are some of the potential consequences of the plan:
EUROPE, RUSSIA AND ENERGY SECURITY
* Iraqi Kurdistan gas would give Europe a source from Iraq through Turkey, away from Russia and its immediate sphere of influence. Europe relies on Russia for a quarter of its natural gas supplies. A cut-off in Russian supplies to Europe last winter due to a dispute with Ukraine left thousands without heating and added urgency to Europe's search for more sources.
* Russia opposes the Nabucco pipeline plan and is developing the rival South Stream project. It signed deals with partners on Friday to accelerate the scheme. Moscow has rebuked the United States and former Soviet satellite nations for backing the rival Nabucco plan.
* Russia is Turkey's largest trade partner. Turkey is Russia's third-largest gas consumer. A 26-year gas supply deal between the two expires in 2012 and both agreed to work on extending the deal on Saturday.
TURKEY, EUROPE AND IRAQ'S KURDISTAN REGION
* Turkey would gain bargaining power in its quest to become a member of the European Union as a transit country and facilitator of gas exports from Iraq. Due to its geographical position straddling the Middle East, Central Asia and Europe, Turkey sees its potential for being a strategic energy partner as one of its strongest arguments for accession to Europe.
* The pipeline would increase interdependence between the Iraqi Kurdistan region and Turkey. This may have implications for the 25-year Kurdish separatist conflict in the largely Kurdish area of southeastern Turkey, long a source of regional instability and a hindrance to Ankara's EU membership quest.
* As the transit country for gas supplies to Europe, Turkey would also gain leverage over Iraq's Kurdistan region.
* Gas exports from the Kurdish Regional Government in Iraq to the Turkish market would make Turkey dependent on energy supplied by the Iraqi Kurds.
* Exports from Iraq's Kurdistan region could help meet Turkey's gas needs and remove a potential obstacle to Nabucco. Around 1 billion cubic feet per day (cfd) could go to the Turkish market from the consortium project in Kurdistan. That is more than the 15 percent of Nabucco's 3 billion cfd that Turkey wanted for its own market.
IRAQ'S KURDISTAN REGION, NABUCCO
* Gas exports would thrust the semi-autonomous Kurdistan region of Iraq onto the international energy supply stage. The region plans to make its first foray into the world energy market with exports of crude through Iraq's northern oil export pipeline to Turkey in June.
* The project could pave the way to future, larger exports from northern Iraq to Europe, Turkey and other nearby states with gas needs.
* The region's oil and gas reserves were little explored under Saddam Hussein and are potentially larger than estimated. The UAE's Crescent Petroleum is confident it can pump over 3 billion cfd for many years. Around half of that would be available for the Nabucco project, enough to fill the first phase of the pipeline.
BAGHDAD, OIL FIRMS
* Baghdad's oil ministry declined to comment on the Kurdistan gas plan on Sunday. Iraq's oil ministry has clashed repeatedly with the Kurdish Regional Government over control of the country's oil and gas reserves and could oppose the deal, which has no federal approval. The oil ministry has criticised oil and gas contracts the KRG has signed with international oil companies, calling them illegal. The disagreement goes to the heart of political differences in Iraq over central versus regional control over the world's third largest oil reserves.
* Baghdad has blacklisted firms that have signed deals with the KRG. This has kept the world's biggest energy firms away from the Kurdistan region but left opportunities for those less concerned about Baghdad's opprobrium.
IRAN
* Iran has long expressed its desire to become a major player in the world gas export market and has said it wanted to be a supplier to the Nabucco project. The pipeline would still need more gas, so Iran could join the Kurdistan region in the future.
* But European buyers do not see Iran as a reliable potential source of gas. European companies have halted investment plans there due to political pressure and sanctions from the United States and the United Nations over Iran's nuclear programme. (Reporting by Simon Webb; Editing by Thomas Atkins and Alex Richardson) Printable version larger | smaller Business-- May 18, 2009 1:20 AM ∞
Tsalagi wrote:
Food for thought......"The astronomer Philip Plait has stated very clearly that the Mayan calendar does not end in 2012 at all, that it is like the odometer on your car, as each section of the odometer reaches 9 and then clicks over to 0, the next number to it starts a new cycle, so that when all the numbers again reach 0 all the way across the odometer - the last number will change from 1 to 2 and the new cycle starts all over again".
-- May 20, 2009 12:53 AM ∞
Roger in Iraq wrote:
Hi all,
Long time no see, being busy doing long hours in Iraq.
I read through the blog, and found that there are some oldtimers that have popped in again, Hi to you all.
Me, I am very remote from any politics, or Dinar info, as the job I have is on a military base, and we are in all essence doing military jobs.(Except the pulling of the trigger, part)
The Iraq attitude is a mixture of culture, clan, society, religion and Islamic faction belonging ( Shiite , Sunni).
The most irritating for a westerner is the lack of belonging, an Iraqi man has.
I think we all, as one, naively thought that after the invasion they would stand up and say -"Hurrah, we are free" and then build up the society again.
That's what we westerners would do, and we had no clue what we had opened up.
When passing by ( totally ineffective) checkpoints manned by the former insurgents, "Son of Iraq" they put on a very visible display, or a theater act pointing to thir mouth, wanting water, and food.
So drivers toss out an MRE ( Meals Ready to Eat) or a waterbottle. Well if there is two Iraqis there, and you toss out two MRE's, and one manage to pick up both of them, he will not share.
The one that wasn't quick enough will just resign ad accept the fact that he will not eat today.
Throw a bunch of lightsticks (chemsticks, used to mark the way in the dark) to kids, and if one kid was very quick, he will proudly display four or five sticks, but he will not share them with other kids.
An Iraqi man loudly display his opinion in any matter, but he will never maneuver himself into a position where he actually has to take a decision.
By culture religion and clanlife, they have evolved into small small islands, where they don't belong to Iraq, but are a member of a family (clan) religion or sect, and it was not made by their own decision, but by birth, and therefore it was fate.
The way Islam is displayed here, it is everywhere, it is on loudspeakers five times a day from the minaretes. The predominant view is that Allah have everything written down in a book, all past and future happenings, so any decision is pretty meaningless, as it is already decided by Allah how things will work out.
Besides, if Allah already have decided about it, it can be dangerous to go about and make any contrary decisions.
I saw a pretty good example of this the other day. We were hauling those ugly concrete slabs that are erected all over Baghdad and Iraq as barriers, and came to an off loading point.
The crane company that was to off load it was an Iraqi company.
Ok, here is a group of people, all assocciated with the crane, the company owner, ( or the company representative), the crane driver, the crane operator, and a couple of crane handlers.
They were all standing and discussing how to do the job, it was a very heated debate, with all of them in a group, waiving their hands in the face of each other, and loudly giving all their opinions about how this should be done.
Ok we are waiting a little bit, (the convoy, and the military) for them to sort this out, but the discussion was endless.
We have time schedules to meet, and this could not continue to go on forever, so one military commander, and a convoy commander walked over, and basically told them to shut up, ...do this , this and this....ok start now.
All in the group immediately went to work. Happily aware that "The Americans" had made the decision. Something that they themselves will have a very hard time doing.
Ad to this scenario that a very high percentage of the population can not read or write.
A population that is illiterate is very very easily controlled. They have to be told what to do, and as long as the powers that are holding the Iraqi society , the Mullahs and the Clanchief (the Sheik), they have to carefully consider what they are telling their followers, as not to lose their power.
Women in Baghdad, can dress like a women, and follow fashion, as they do, but outside Baghdad, you see them with a black bag over their head.
Kids frequently raid trucks waiting to get in to bases, they rip up any boxes, and steal chains, straps, or whatever is in the boxes. They know that the drivers can not and will not get out, and in the trafficjam the military gun trucks are pretty inefficient to stop them.
In a western society, kids would not get away with that for long, there would be a Sheriff knocking on someones door, or a School Principal that would call in the offender, but here kids run around in packs unsupervised.
The best that could happen if you're lucky, is that a person from the "Son of Iraq" check point will MAAAYYYBE walk away from his check point no more than 30 yards, and shine a flashlight "to check out what's going on" ....but he will never actually do police work, he is far to busy eating MRE's.
His job is to FILL the uniform, the conceptual understading that this is his own land, and he is responsible for his land, is not in his world of thinking.
So if you wonder why anything goes so slow in this country, well their competence that once was here have fled to other countries, and the only competence they now can hope to have, has to be imported from companies from outside Iraq, and they will not come in as long as the Iraqis are running around in pyamas shooting each other, or planting bombs.
The shooting and planting of bombs have decreased very much. I still get military intelligence that they have tried this or that, and that there have been a bomb here or there, but it is getting fewer and fewer inbetween. Lately though, it has picked up a bit, but that is mostly due to the summer weather, they don't like to have war in wintertime.
When I came here last summer, I came at the very tail end of the "official" insurgency, and in my job I saw a lot of action, but have personally not seen anything for a very long time now.
I can see small small differences in the society for the better, but they have still a very very long way to go before this place can be called, at least, in a halfway decent shape.
Eventually it will turn around, and once that snowball gains more and more momentum it will be a boom.
It has definitely started to roll, I can say that, but are a bit disappointed with the overall slow progress in most any area here in Iraq.
One of the biggest drawbacks in the development of this country, is our own idea of how we want to present ourselves.
Basically we have in this moment of time, a presence of around 140.000 troops, and about twice the population in support personell.
Ok the first thing we did was to build for ourself forts and bases all along the country. Some with a population over 20.000 people.
The city (cities) we build up are all behind a wire, it has a big concrete barrier high enough that you can not see over it from the outside. We have guard towers, and Constantine ( barb) wire all around it. In order to get in or out, you have to have a military convoy, unless you fly in with helio or airplane.
That is all nice and ducky for a pure military operation, but our own influence is very limited, the only thing the Iraqis see, is military vehicles, neatly organized convoys, airplanes, helicopters, and a lot of flares shot out by us from either helios, guntrucks or artillery ( I have artillery shooting not too far from my sleeping quarters, they shoot at any time, and they are loud)
You will with an operation like this do a perfect military set up, but the countrys, electrical system sewer system, water system, etc, will not benefit anything.
Very few in selected posts are mingling with the Iraqis, but the vast vast majority of personell going to Iraq, will have very little or no contact with an Iraqi person. They will all sit in modern cities build up by contractors, on the bases, where they are enjoying food, movies, computers, gym,s and shopping sprees in the on base shopping centers, connected by a fully developed bus system with regular scedules.
For the Iraqis, we are just a massive amount of machines driving or flying around.
There is no human face to it.
The military part is something that we can do to perfection, but the missing link here is the human development resource.
For heavens sake, we had the invasion as far back as in 2003, and still, no one have taken any significant step in developing this country in a way that will make any significant difference for the Iraqis.
Knowing that Iraqis, by culture, religion and past political indoctrination ( you better not say or do anything that will go against Saddams wishes),will not stick out their neck themselves in order to make anything happen, the Iraqis need a boost, need a kick in the butt, and need a helping hand in getting the snowball rolling.
All these contracts I am reading about, is the slow way to go, but I assume that this is the way it has to go.
I strongly think that we gave back the coutry to the Iraqis far far too quick.
And I also strongly believe that if we would have actually done a "second invasion" in resources allocated for really really building up this country as to infrastructure, while we had it in our hands, we would have had a far far different and much better situation right now.
I sincerely hope that we have learned a very strong lesson this time, when we seem to build up the forces in Afghanistan.
We can not again just build forts for ourselves, drive around or fly around war machines, and when we are done for the day go back to our own privately built up "city" and watch a movie while eating a steak, having no intention to build up Afghanistans infra structure.
However I have a feeling that we will still have a problem with our memory chip capacity.
Gotta go, will be on convoy tomorrow,
See ya all
Roger-- May 20, 2009 11:42 PM ∞
Rob N. wrote:
Roger,
Thank you for the insightful post. This further confirms my leanings that an investment in the Iraqi Dinar is a long term proposition.
Thanks,
Rob N.
-- May 21, 2009 10:17 AM ∞
Valerio wrote:
Very nice peace Roger.,
Thank you.-- May 22, 2009 1:30 AM ∞
Tsalagi wrote:
Roger....
Good comments....spoken like a true Western expat. It truly is sad that their local mullah can lead them around like a bunch of sheep. The GOI will only improve when they finally figure out how to split the golden goose of oil and they fill their greedy little hands.
-- May 22, 2009 11:06 AM ∞
Tsalagi wrote:
I just checked my account at Warka bank and noted that the "E-Remittance" feature was active again after being down for up-dating. The procedure appeared the same so the changes must have been for security to their core banking system.I did a test run on this feature about a year ago and it worked just great. It cost $50 and took about three business days to transfer money to my US account.
-- May 22, 2009 12:04 PM ∞
Tsalagi wrote:
When you meet a warrior this weekend....reach out, shake their hand and say "thank you for your service to our country"! I'll betcha $10 they smile!
-- May 23, 2009 8:00 PM ∞
Bob wrote:
The fighting between Sunnis and Shiites is over:
The big sleep
Last Updated: April 24. 2009 3:03PM UAE / April 24. 2009 11:03AM GMT
An Awakening fighter mans a checkpoint in Dora in September 2008, shortly before authority over the Awakening groups was transferred from the US to the Iraqi government. Ahmad al Rubaye / AFP
The Sunni militiamen of the Awakening movement have outlived their usefulness to American forces and the Iraqi government. Some worry these unemployed fighters will relaunch the insurgency they left behind – but they don't stand a chance. Nir Rosen reports.On March 28, clashes erupted in Baghdad’s Fadhil district after Iraqi troops arrested the leader of the local Awakening Council, Adil al Mashhadani, one of many former Sunni insurgents who had allied with American forces in the fight against al Qaeda-inspired Salafi militants in Iraq. Mashhadani’s men staged a two-day uprising, which was put down by Iraqis with considerable help from American troops fighting against their former allies.
In Baghdad Mashhadani was a notorious figure, one of many Awakenings men suspected of serious crimes before he went on the American payroll and of continuing them afterwards. I had heard complaints about him since 2007 from Shiites, and especially from supporters of Muqtada al Sadr, who were outraged that a man they accused of the indiscriminate slaughter of Shiite civilians had been empowered by the Americans. An American intelligence officer in Washington told me that the US had possessed incriminating information on Mashhadani for several years – but that he had been one of the first insurgents to see which way the wind was blowing and sign on with the Americans.
Mashhadani’s men and their allies complained that the Americans had betrayed them, and threatened to renew their insurgency unless their leader was released; the clashes in Fadhil provoked new speculation that the failure to integrate the Awakenings into the Iraqi security forces would lead to renewed sectarian strife, if not a return to full-scale civil war. But the brief uprising was quickly put down, and Mashhadani’s arrest demonstrated quite clearly that the civil war is over: there is no organised force in Iraq today capable of challenging, or attempting to overthrow, the government of Prime Minister Nouri al Maliki.
In early April, Maliki appeared on Iraqi state television to say that the fighting in Fadhil was not against the Awakening but against remnants of the outlawed Baath Party: what happened in Fadhil, he said, was a message to other Awakening leaders in contact with the Baath Party that they would be next. The Awakening, Maliki said, was over, and its men would now serve the state or hang up their guns.
The arrest of Mashhadani and other Awakening leaders – and Maliki’s remarks – would seem to mark the beginning of the end for what was a controversial and potentially dangerous component of the American strategy in Iraq, the creation and funding of Sunni militias outside the authority of the state. By 2005 there was no doubt that Iraq’s Sunnis and Shiites were engaged in a bloody civil war, and the increasingly aggressive, Shiite-dominated Iraqi Security Forces began to punish Sunni civilians for attacks conducted by al Qa’eda and other Sunni radicals against Shiites. The bombing of a Shiite shrine in Samarra in February 2006 triggered a wave of retaliatory violence and escalated attacks by Shiite militias like the Mahdi Army and the Badr Brigade, who served as the storm troopers of the increasingly powerful Shiite bloc. They effectively depopulated Baghdad of its Sunnis, who fled to Jordan, Syria or Anbar province. When I met with Sunni resistance leaders in Amman and Damascus in 2006, they openly admitted defeat.
The cleansing of Sunnis from much of Baghdad deprived Sunni insurgents of sanctuary among the population as they were losing battles with al Qa’eda, the Americans and Shiite militias. The Shiite bloc had numerical superiority, backed by the force of the Iraqi state and its security forces. And so, one by one, groups of Sunni resistance fighters struck ceasefire agreements with the Americans and joined the fight against al Qa’eda and other radical elements.
The “surge” of American forces allowed Maliki to strengthen the authority of the state and its security forces, while the establishment of the Awakening groups neutralised anti-government Sunni militias (in some cases simply by paying them salaries not to fight the state). The decline in sectarian violence gave Maliki space to weaken competing Shiite militias, who had been integral to cleansing Sunnis from mixed areas and establishing Shiite dominance but whose presence prevented his fully consolidating control.
The prevailing order in Iraq today is a Shiite-dominated one, but the balance of power is not divided along exclusively sectarian lines: it is between those close to the state and those without its backing – as some wags put it, between the “powers that be” and the “powers that aren’t”. Maliki has pursued a divide-and-conquer strategy among Sunnis, rewarding some local leaders with prestige and privileges while arresting or crushing others. Many Sunnis are more than willing to accept an authoritarian prime minister in exchange for a reduction in violence.
What has not followed the drop in violence is a political settlement: for the past year analysts have worried that the failure to disarm or integrate the Sunni Awakening groups into the state risked sowing the seeds of a new insurgency. But the tepid response to the arrest of Mashhadani and other Awakening men suggests that a political reconciliation may not have been necessary. The burgeoning Iraqi state, embodied by Maliki himself, can simply continue to expand its power and crush any rivals. One US Army Iraq expert, who worked closely with General David Petraeus to plan and implement the surge, told me in 2008 that the civil war would end when the Shiites realised they had won and the Sunnis realised they had lost. Based on the conversations I had during a trip through Iraq last month, both sides seem to accept that this is the case.
A market in Adhamiya, the last remaining Sunni enclave in east Baghdad, where Saddam Hussein made his final public appearance on April 8, 2003. Ali Yussef / AFP
In September 2008 Maliki – in a concession to the Americans – issued an order calling for the integration of 20 per cent of the eligible Awakening men into the ministries of defence and interior. The following month the government of Iraq began to assume responsibility (financial and otherwise) over the Awakening groups. But as of today less than five per cent have joined the Iraqi Security Forces. At the same time, senior Awakening leaders and many of their men have been arrested, while others have been relieved of their duties (and their pay) and told to go home. It is a quiet and slow process, but one that continues to emasculate one of the last groups that rivalled the authority of the Iraqi state.There is nothing the Awakening groups can do. As guerrillas and insurgents they were only effective when they operated covertly, underground, blending in among a Sunni population that has now mostly been dispersed. Now the former resistance fighters-turned-paid guards are publicly known, and their names, addresses and biometric data are in the hands of American and Iraqi forces. They cannot return to an underground that has been cleared, and they still face the wrath of radical Sunnis who view them as traitors. They have failed to unite and as their stories demonstrate, they are on the run.
********************************
In December 2007 I met a 30-year-old man named Osama who had a contract with the US Army to provide 300 Iraqi Security Volunteers, as the Americans called the Awakening men. (They were also known, less formally, as the “Sons of Iraq”.) Osama’s men guarded a sector in the Mekanik area of south Baghdad’s volatile Dora district. He wore jeans, a sweater and baseball cap and had a slight baby face concealed by stubble.“People loved al Qa’eda at first,” Osama said, “they protected the neighbourhood from the Mahdi Army and the Iraqi police, but they got more powerful and they kidnapped Sunnis and Christians.” Most of his fighters had belonged to Sunni insurgent groups like the Army of the Mujahideen, the Islamic Army and the 1920 Revolution Brigades. These men began to turn against al Qa’eda after IEDs placed in civilian areas began to kill Iraqis as well. Together with men called Abu Yasser (formerly of the Army of the Mujahideen) and Abu Salih (of the 1920 Revolution Brigades), Osama began to tip off the Americans about the location of IEDs. Soon they were calling the Americans for assistance when Shiite militias attacked the neighbourhood and passing on information about the whereabouts of suspected al Qa’eda militants.
Abu Yasser told me then that he decided to work with the Americans and the Awakening “because of Iranians getting more power in Iraq,” he told me. “They are occupying Sunni areas. They are the bigger enemy.” He admitted that Sunnis made a strategic blunder by boycotting the Iraqi political process in the early days of the occupation, and Sunni clerics made a mistake by issuing fatwas prohibiting Sunnis from joining the nascent security forces the Americans were creating. “This is the result now. Because we didn’t join the police and army, they got full of the Mahdi Army and Badr.” Abu Yasser hoped to join the police one day, but added, “if the government doesn’t let us join we’ll stay here protecting our area”.
But the Awakening groups never had a chance against the centralised authority of the Iraqi state: from the beginning they were divided against one another, squabbling over the power they had previously been denied. In February 2008, I accompanied Abu Salih and his men to Ramadi, where they had been summoned to a meeting by the head of the Awakening Council, Sheikh Ahmed Abu Risha. Osama was excited at the prospect of discussing the future of the movement – he wanted the Awakening groups to form a government for Sunnis with Abu Risha, he told me, “because the Iraqi government doesn’t do sh**”.
But in Ramadi the order of the day was seeing off several rivals from their own neighbourhood, who had appealed to the Sheikh in Ramadi to be recognised as movement’s official representatives in Dora in advance of the next elections. Abu Salih traded insults and accusations with the competition, with each faction accusing the other of al Qa’eda membership and claiming to have single-handedly protected the neighbourhood. After an hour of contentious argument, Abu Salih left, proudly carrying the Awakening Council flag: they were Dora’s new political bosses.
It did them little good: the following month Osama threatened to quit and withdraw all his men after an assault by the Shiite-dominated Iraqi National Police, who opened fire on the neighbourhood and beat some of Osama’s men with rifles. The Americans did nothing, Osama complained, and they were late with payments. “They are killing me,” he said, “like I’m begging money from them, every day the same bullsh**, people don’t believe that they’re late, they think I’m keeping money.”
In October 2008, two weeks after authority over Dora’s Awakening groups passed to the Iraqi government, Osama’s deputy Abu Yasser was arrested by the National Police. Osama told me he was taken to the police headquarters, hung by his arms, and tortured. He confessed to murders he hadn’t committed – but the victims he named were still alive. Still, he remains in prison. He has already paid $20,000 toward his release, Osama told me, but “they can’t release him without money, everything costs money.” Abu Yasser was worried that al Qa’eda men in prison with him would find out that he was with the Awakening and kill him.
After Abu Yasser’s arrest, Abu Salih arranged a lunch to celebrate Eid; he invited the local American army unit as well. In the meantime he had achieved a measure of fame, and even Abud Qanbar, the commander of Iraqi security forces in Baghdad, came to Dora and shook his hand, accompanied by television cameras. “Abu Salih helped many Shiite families come back and protected them,” Osama told me, but said that not long after the lunch, a new American unit showed up in the area and arrested Abu Salih. He was taken to the serious crimes unit of the Iraqi police and accused of terrorism. Osama said that he too was tortured and hung by his arms, and now has trouble walking. Abu Salih also paid about $20,000, according to Osama, and his family expect him to be released when more money is paid. At least eight other men I knew from Osama’s group had been arrested since the Iraqi government took over.
When I met Osama in March, he was hiding in an apartment on the northern edge of Baghdad – there was a warrant out for his arrest as well, and he could not return to Dora to visit his parents. Osama felt betrayed. “The Americans were only with us when they needed us,” he said. When he called the Americans to complain that Abu Yassir had been arrested, they told him it was an Iraqi affair.
“The Sons of Iraq was never supposed to be an amnesty programme,” one American embassy official in Baghdad told me when I recounted this story to him. A Shiite Iraqi Army captain who fought both al Qa’eda and the Mahdi Army put it this way: “the Mahdi Army was taking over Sunni areas so the Americans came up with the Awakening to create a balance between Shiites and Sunnis. We knew the Awakening, we had their names, we knew that they were wanted men. The first time I heard about it I was against it – armed guys on the street. But the Americans said ‘cooperate with them, use them now and we’ll arrest them later.’”
********************************
Many of the Awakening leaders I saw in Baghdad and its environs in March told similar stories. In the Mukhabarat area of Baghdad’s Jihad district, I visited Ibrahim Saleh, also known as Abu Abdallah Hamdani. The area was walled off, and the entrance was guarded by a tense Awakening man and some members of the National Police. Inside I drove by a large lake of sewage and rubbish alongside a dirt road that led to Saleh’s large house, still under construction at the top of a hill.Saleh took charge of 160 Awakening men in August 2008, after the National Police arrested his brother Taher, the area’s previous leader. He said that he and his brother joined the Awakening because they wanted to protect the area, and because there were no other jobs. “The Friendly Forces,” as he called the Americans, “came to us and asked Taher my brother to protect the area and give information. The Awakening was established here in July 2007.” He claimed his brother had a good relationship with the National Police, but one day they came to patrol the area, and Taher invited them to lunch. “After they finished eating they arrested him,” Saleh told me. “They accused him of murder and stealing. In the beginning they beat him badly, he passed out for two days.”
Ibrahim claimed that both al Qa’eda and Shiite militias had tried to assassinate him. Two weeks before I met him one of his Awakening men was arrested and beaten until he confessed to murder. I asked him what he expected would come next. “This is the reality,” he said. “I will be arrested, 100 per cent. As soon as they finish with me they will arrest me.” He too felt betrayed. “We were with the government of Iraq and the Americans. The arrests can’t happen without the permission of the Americans.”
Ibrahim’s men get 345,000 Iraqi dinars (Dhs1093, or about $300) a month. Since the handover many of his men have not received their salaries. None of his men were integrated into the security forces, he said, and he claimed that at the nearby Furat Police Academy, any Sunni recruit was rejected.
Along the banks of the Tigris in south Baghdad is an idyllic rural area, called Arab Jubur, which was the scene of some of the worst al Qa’eda violence of the war. As I drove there from Dora with a local friend, past groves of palm trees, he pointed to empty fields where he said al Qa’eda used to dump bodies, many of them Shiites kidnapped on the nearby motorway. “They would take whole Kia buses full of people,” he said. We drove through numerous checkpoints where Awakening men stood alongside Iraqi soldiers. The road was scarred by IEDs and the holes were filled with dirt.
I stopped to chat with two Awakening men at a checkpoint outside Arab Jubur. My friend told me that both men had been with the Army of the Mujahideen, but joined the Awakening in 2007. Neither they nor their comrades had succeeded in joining the Iraqi Security Forces. “We all tried,” they said. “It was only promises.” They had also not been paid in two months. A 17-year-old boy from the neighbourhood hopped in our car to take us to the house of the local Awakening leader. “It became normal to see dead bodies here on the side of the road,” he said as we drove.
Iraqi soldiers patrol Baghdad’s Fadhil district a day after clashes erupted between Awakening men and Iraqi and American forces, following the arrest of Adel al Mashhadani, the head of the local Awakening Council. Hadi Mizban / AP Photo
Inside the house I met Tahsin Abdallah Khalal al Rabia, of the Jubur tribe. Only 25, he was one of the first men in the area to join the Awakening, which was led in the area by his brother Amer. He told me that three of his brothers had been killed by al Qa’eda even before they established an Awakening group, and one after. As we spoke, Amer showed up, wearing a loose fitting suit with a pistol tucked in his pants. A 24-year veteran of the Iraqi Army, Amer led the Awakening groups in the villages of Zunbaraniya, Uleimiya and Beijia. Under the Americans he led 629 men, but the Iraqis had been reducing his numbers, firing men every month, and he was down to only 490. He too said that none of his men had managed to join the Iraqi Security Forces.A few months earlier, he said, two of his men captured two al Qa’eda fighters and brought them to Dora to hand them over to the National Police. But Amer’s men were arrested as well, and remained in prison in Dora.
“The Iraqi army pays us now,” he said, “and many negative things have happened. They reduced salaries: I used to get $600 a month, now I get $300 a month like my men. The Americans used to come here to pay us, now we have to go to Iraqi army battalion, wait on long lines, sometimes for two or three days. We are treated with disrespect. For the last two months there is no salary. It’s all fake promises.”
Iraqi soldiers, he complained, had beaten one of his men and insulted him because he did not salute them. “We are targeted by al Qa’eda and we have no protection,” he told me. He said that he had been falsely accused of murder, and there was now a warrant for his arrest in Baghdad. Sectarianism persisted in Iraq, but it was now covert, he told me. “Why did terrorism happen?” he asked. “Because of the vacuum. If they don’t put the Awakening groups in the Iraqi army or Iraqi police, problems will happen.”
********************************
In Adhamiya, the last Sunni enclave in east Baghdad, I met Abu Omar, also known as Khalil Ibrahim, one of the Awakening leaders there. The neighbourhood is home to the important Abu Hanifa mosque, where Saddam Hussein made his last public appearance, surrounded by adoring supporters, on April 8, 2003. I sat with Abu Omar on some plastic chairs and drank tea in the main square, which was adorned with posters of slain Awakening fighters, including two of Abu Omar’s sons. I worried about suicide bombers, who had killed several of Adhamiya’s Awakening leaders inside the neighbourhood. As we sat, small boys ran around us. One of them, whose father was a slain Awakening fighter, played with a plastic pistol, shooting at us.“If the Awakening wasn’t here,” he said proudly, “in 20 years the Iraqi army and US army wouldn’t be able to come in.” He bragged that it was the “third hottest area in Iraq” and noted that the neighbourhood held out against American troops for a day longer than much of the rest of Baghdad. Then Abu Omar was fighting the Americans as well, and I asked him how he could collaborate with his former enemies. “The Americans are leaving, but the Iranians are staying,” he told me.
In November 2007 he joined the Awakening with 13 other family members. He had been a non-commissioned intelligence officer in the Iraqi army, and claims that after the war he was jobless and sold gasoline on the black market.
At first Abu Omar’s men clashed with the Iraqi Army. “We don’t accept the Iraqi police here,” he told me, “they can only come with army. We don’t like them, they’re all militias.” Out of the hundreds of Awakening men in his area, only four had managed to join the police. “The government is sectarian,” he said. “They want to destroy the Awakening.”
Under the Americans, he said, his men were paid on time, and he was given gas, bullets and money for food. But when we spoke, the salaries were 52 days late, and 84 of his men had been relieved of their duties. When the Americans withdraw, he said, the civil war will resume. I asked him why he did not unite with other Awakening leaders to form a stronger front. “We tried in 2008,” he told me. “Awakening leaders couldn’t join together because they couldn’t agree among themselves.”
When they were first established, the Awakening groups were a formidable force. But it may seem now to many of the former insurgents that they miscalculated: their cooperation has not resulted in political power or even incorporation into the security forces. Awakening men are not the only people in Iraq today who can’t find work – that problem is widespread – but former Shiite militiamen, by comparison, have much less trouble joining the security forces.
Several Awakening men told me that some of their leaders were fleeing, out of fear of arrest, and that others were contemplating a return to violence in response to the increased pressure they faced from the government. In recent weeks scores of Awakening men have been arrested in Dora and Arab Jubur, and there were reports in April that an American air strike killed a group of Awakening fighters allegedly planting IEDs in north Baghdad.
The failed uprising in Fadhil at the end of March was a distinct sign, however, that no united Sunni front is likely to emerge. The deadly insurgency that followed the American invasion was spread across a wide swath of the country; resistance from isolated local Sunni groups poses no such problem for the strengthened Iraqi state, and the failure of other Awakening leaders to come to Mashhadani’s defence makes it clear there will be no widespread uprising.
At the beginning of April, a few days after Mashhadani was arrested, Thamir al Tamimi, also known as Abu Azzam, a senior Awakening Council leader from Anbar who is a liaison to the government, downplayed the significance of the arrest in an interview and said that joining the Awakening did not provide a person with immunity.
Hamid al Hayis, an early founder of the Awakening in Anbar, gave a similar interview to the Saudi-owned Asharq al Awsat, in which he defended the arrest of Mashhadani. The Awakening, he said, was now only a political organisation, and only Iraqi government forces should be armed; other men carrying weapons, he said, were nothing more than militias.
A spate of bombings followed the clashes in Fadhil, giving rise to more concern about a return to sectarian conflict. Shiite neighbourhoods in Baghdad were struck by coordinated car bombs, and attacks against American soldiers, Iraqi Security Forces and Awakening members also increased.
Some of these attacks may represent a warning by Awakening leaders that they can still obstruct American goals in Iraq; they are more likely an opportunistic attempt by al Qa’eda-like groups to take advantage of Sunni grievances and provoke further violence. But there is little prospect for another outbreak of war: today there is no area controlled by al Qa’eda in Iraq, and it does not appear likely the group can seize any territory.
The remaining Awakening men have burnt their bridges with their more radical former allies and are now hunted by them; the Iraqi Security Forces have improved their intelligence and strike capability and have little problem tracking those men they want to arrest. Sunni civilians have no interest in backing a new insurgency after their own bitter experience – and they no longer feel targeted by Shiite militias.
The occasional al Qa’eda suicide attack can still kill masses of innocent civilians, but it has no strategic impact; in fact it is difficult to understand what motivates such attacks today, since their effect is almost nil. It would be naive to say that Iraq’s future is certain, or even likely, to be a peaceful one, but the war between Sunnis and Shiites is now over.
Nir Rosen is a Fellow at the New York University Center on Law and Security. He is finishing a book about the civil war in Iraq.
-- May 24, 2009 8:59 PM ∞
Andy wrote:
Hi everybody, I just purchased 250,000 Dinar. Does anyone know when they will set the value on the new Dinar and how much it will be set at? I am hearing June 1, 2009 they will announce to the public how much it will be worth and an inside source I have is saying it could be worth up to $5.31
-- May 28, 2009 2:07 PM ∞
NellyB wrote:
Roger.
Your recent post was, as always, highly informative and entertaining. I swear I get a better picture of what it is like to be over there from your posts than from a million news stories.
I think someone mentioned it many months ago that you 'should' write a book. My own thoughts are that this would be a very popular read. You have a talent for getting your unique insights across in a very concise and clear way, without being boring or purely factual.
Kudos to you for getting your butt over their and not only seeing what is going on over in the sand pit, but also making it happen.
All the best and play safe :o)
Hi Andy. Welcome aboard. Grab yourself a seat, sit back and enjoy the view. You could be in for a bit of a wait. If you hang on a few more weeks it might hit $5.40!
NellyB
-- May 28, 2009 5:27 PM ∞
Rob N. wrote:
Andy,
I do not mean to be a wet blanket but you may want to cast the date of 06/01/09 aside as well as the exchange rate of $5.31.
Iraq is still sometime away from altering its exchange rate in a significant manner. The GoI must still pass Hydro Carbon legislation prior to any change in the Dinars exchange rate. They must monetize its oil to back such a move cash reserves and gold alone would not support it.
Your source stating $5.31 per Dinar is in my opinion way off base. Is your source a dealer? I would venture a broad guess of $.33 to $1.00 and the dollar may be stretching it.
I concur with NellyB sit back and relax. Do not look for anything of significance until after the parlimentary elections to be held Jan 2010.
Thanks,
Rob N.
-- May 28, 2009 5:53 PM ∞
Roger in Iraq wrote:
Hi all,
...and thanks for all your positive comments.
Today another team did the daily (nightly that is, in the Baghdad area we can not do convoys in day time) convoy, and I had a rare opportunity to be in the yard, doing some work, and at the wee hours compose a little bit on the "pjuter".
I would like to report a little bit as the "eye on the ground", and I have observed something that I don't know how to interpret.
I will just put it out there to you and you try to figure it out. Your guess will probably be as good as mine. No one will for sure tell us nohing here.
According to the news we are now in a three year ( close to two and a half year left) contract with the Iraqis to stay here, and after that we're suppose to leave, all of us, leave nothing left.
Ok, Obama wants to do this a little bit quicker, and are talking about a year and a half.
In order to dismantle this whole infrastructure and ship it back home, you have to put into it a loooot of effort, because if we are to tear this down in record time, all the bases we have been continously building on since we got here, we need to get really really busy doing that more or less yesterday.
Granted there are some material that will not be cost effective to bring back, and some are probably being considered to be left behind to the Iraqis, but the amount of stuff we have here is many fully functional bases.
I do know that some of the smaller bases ARE in fact shutting down, and I have observed some personell moving around because of that.
However, at least two very big bases that I am in contact with veery frequently, show no indication of folding up, instead, construction is ongoing, and I can see some pretty big projects being done as we speak. That to me does not indicate that we will leave, but the contrary, that we are here to stay.
Today we had a small, in base, convoy where we took a lot of empty containers to the shipping point. I happened to hear that they were going to Kuwait empty, to get loaded and shipped back.
I can imagine that if we are leaving, we would fill the containers with something we want to get out, but we are instead hauling stuff in here, in big volume.
The projects I have seen being done is something I would call "multi million dollar projects" with complex structures in ongoing constuction.
Taken into account a couple of data:
1. The three year contract .
2. Obamas wish to get it done quicker.
3. Suggestion from the Iraqis that they may not want us out in such a hurry after all...... makes me believe that the public announcement of actual troop withdrawals and the "real" planning is two different animals.
We are suppose to be down to 35 to 50.000 troops by the middle of next year, and the remainaing troops are now re-named "advisors".
We are suppose to be out of every major city by the end of this June.
In effect, we are suppose to only be a force that are completely walled in in forts after June.
My take, and that has a little bit broader view, what is going on, and that we really need to "drag our feet" out of here, is the following.
On this I might be right or wrong, but I have a feeling that Iran is one of the reasons we are here in such a force.
Iran have already told the world that it will obliterate Israel, and in effect the situatin is pretty simple.
Israel is a country, it can't hide or run, it IS there.
If you can't run or hide, and someone would tell you: -"I hate your guts, and I am going to kill you, and now I am going to get a gun and do just that".
Would you let him go and get the gun, if you were armed and could stop him?
The choice is simple, let him get the gun and you will die, stop him from getting that gun, with whatever means you have, and you will live.
From all the discussions we have had earlier on this blog, nothing has changed, except that the time is getting shorter and shorter.
It is pretty much predictions that a fifth grader can do, Israel must hit, if no diplomatic solution is at hand.
I am really sure they are trying diplomatic solutions, but from the part of Iran, the negotiations are only means of buying time, in order to develop and produce their nuclear warheads.
Now, THAT scenario makes more sense to me, as a reason to hang around in Iraq as long as possible.
Who knows, if it comes to blows with Iran, any old contract with Iraq, will probably be renewed with the perspective from the new scenario in the aftermath of THAT conflict, and THAT may be a completely different ballgame.
All of this is specualtion of course, but it seems more real along any logical lines to me anyway.
I don't think, in case there will be a conflict with Iran, that Iraq will be involved in that conflict, it MAY if the Iranians are lobbing warheads into American bases here in Iraq, instead the gavanizing factor that will unite Iraq against an outside enemy.
Despite the fact that Iraq is 60 % Shiite, there is a difference between Iran and Iraq. They have already had a war between them so the idea is not far fetched. Iran and Iraq are trying very much to cooperate, but there is an international pressure, plus a national awareness already in Iraq.
As I described earlier, the common man is still much in the hands of his Mullah and Sheik, and his loyalty to Iraq is perhaps the third in line, after the Mullahs and Sheiks, but he is not aligned with Iran in any way or form other than on religious ground.
Ok it is a little bit much to dwell on, all in one package, so I think I better go and wrap up some caqins on some trucks we need to use tomorrow.
See ya all,
Roger
-- May 28, 2009 8:40 PM ∞
Roger in Iraq wrote:
Roger in Iraq,
caqins = chains
oooops,
-- May 28, 2009 8:43 PM ∞
Laura Parker wrote:
Roger and all,
Roger,
I do not think that what you are describing is at all in odds against American foreign policy for Iraq. I resently read or saw a documentary somewhere about how the Iraqis people cooperated with the USA military by turning in Al-qaida and Iranians due to their thought that the people in Iraq viewed the Iranians as the greater threat. I think that this view has been discussed probably by the Iraq Government privately with American officials.
-Your thoughts about the Israel possibly attacking Iran is a valid point.
-The Iraqis being concerned about possible attack from Iran is also a possibility--- even if this war is not recognized.
-The other possibility is that the military maybe planning on moving supplies to Afghanistan. We seem to be moving on military plans to help that population in winning the minds and hearts of the Afghanistan people. Given that this is the policy, some of these supplies could be slated for removal there.
-The other item we know is that the supplies moved to Iraq were for re-construction of Iraq. These supplies could and probably will be used for this purpose.
They still have times for both of these purposes to unfold. And, in the event that Iran decides to attack Israel or vise-versa or even the possibility to attack Iraq-- then the military has options.
Roger, let us know when the military start moving supplies. As I am sure, this is going to happen.
Stay safe.
Laura Parker
-- May 29, 2009 12:34 AM ∞
Laura Parker wrote:
Roger,
The other item is that American is not planning on moving some of these large bases at all. As you stated, 50,000 troops will be left behind in Iraq. It sounds to me like these bases maybe used strategically (as needed). This is not contendant on this 2 1/2 -3 year plan of Obama's.
-Also, northern Iraq has invited troops to stay on forever it seems. They want an American presence.
-The other thought I have is that america has never intended to leave due to the very large embassy. This embassy is the largest one that the USA government has ever built according to the state department. What does that suggest to you?.Sounds like politics to me from both Iraq officials and the American political spheres.
-Oil is another issue. The USA wants to protect this as a vital USA interest. The Iraq's want to protect this right against Iran and any others who want to take it from Iraq. Therefore, Iraq will want the USA to stay.
What do the rest of you think?
Laura Parker
-- May 29, 2009 1:00 AM ∞
Laura Parker wrote:
All,
Do you all remember us discussing the probablity of US troops moving into forts at the outskirts of all the cities into remote locations. Remember we discussed the possibility of the military placing an air force umbrella over the air space of Iraq.
It sort of sounds to me like this is what is happening. The Iraq's are taking on ground security of their country...with a little help from USA and the USA is taking on the air security for the country.
Laura Parker
-- May 29, 2009 1:11 AM ∞
Tsalagi wrote:
The below comments were made this week by General Casey. The four or five "super bases", such as Al-Asad, have been constructed over a several year period to house our troops and handle air operations. I knew the bases had reached "super" status when Popeyes Chicken and KFC opened for business.
==================================================================================================================================================="WASHINGTON (AP) — The Pentagon is prepared to leave fighting forces in Iraq for as long as a decade despite an agreement between the United States and Iraq that would bring all American troops home by 2012, the top U.S. Army officer said Tuesday.
Gen. George Casey, the Army chief of staff, said the world remains dangerous and unpredictable, and the Pentagon must plan for extended U.S. combat and stability operations in two wars. "Global trends are pushing in the wrong direction," Casey said. "They fundamentally will change how the Army works."
He spoke at an invitation-only briefing to a dozen journalists and policy analysts from Washington-based think-tanks. He said his planning envisions combat troops in Iraq and Afghanistan for a decade as part of a sustained U.S. commitment to fighting extremism and terrorism in the Middle East."
-- May 29, 2009 1:52 AM ∞
wrote:
-- May 29, 2009 9:25 PM ∞
Tsalagi wrote:
Funny youtube.....our Brit cousins certainly have a good sense of humor!
-- May 30, 2009 2:26 AM ∞
Andy wrote:
Hi everyone, the rate has been set at $5.62 is what I am hearing and for everyone to say that it wont be that high where is your logic? They wont set it at 33 cents that is way too low it wouldnt do anything for their economy. When this happened to Kuwait in 1990 their currency was set at $7 so it is definetly possible.
-- May 30, 2009 3:29 PM ∞
Tsalagi wrote:
Andy....
The Kuwait Dinar is currently worth $3.48 and their oil curve is going down. Iraq could be $5.62 because their oil curve is going up. I still believe they will RV at less than $1.00 and let it find it's own level. The truth is....anything above 10 cents will set us all free and the party will go on for days!
-- May 30, 2009 4:05 PM ∞
Laura Parker wrote:
All,
I have run across some Deka articles from Israel that may shread some light on Roger's questions about what is happening in the Middle East.
____________________________________
Netanyahu, Mubarak, Abbas meet Obama in Washington this month
12 May: President Hosni Mubarak is invited to talks with US President Barack Obama on May 26, eight days after the Israeli prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu's May 18 visit. Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas follows on May 28.DEBKAfile's Middle East sources report that the private one-and-a-half hour conversation Netanyahu and Mubarak held a at Sharm el-Sheikh Monday, May 11 focused on the urgency of a common Israeli-Arab strategy for dealing with Iran and its allies, which Egypt too has defined as a threat to its own and Middle East stability. Both are worried by the O